Game Preview: Cubs at Astros, 5/21/08

Today's matchup is Sean Gallagher vs. Shawn Chacon.

This is Gallagher's third major league start after pitching out of the bullpen earlier in the season. He's pitched about as well as can be expected for a rookie coming out of the bullpen, throwing ten innings over two starts with a 4.35 ERA. His stamina should improve today -- as it did in his last start -- as he continues to adjust to a starter's workload. Look for him to improve his K/BB ratio today against an aggressive Astros lineup. Assuming he's got decent stuff working, I'd expect him to get a lot of quick outs and get into the seventh pretty easily.

Shawn Chacon has achieved the somewhat dubious distinction of receiving nine straight no-decisions, mostly the result of poor run support. He's given up three runs or less in six of those starts, and gone at least six innings in all but two of them. He did get shelled in his last outing, however, as the Rangers chased him with one out in the fourth after giving up eight runs -- five of them earned -- on six hits and five walks. He also gave up three homers in that game. Aramis Ramirez pounds the living daylight out of Chacon, hitting .588/.600/1.706 in 20 plate appearances for a monstrous 2.306 lifetime OPS against him. Mark DeRosa is the only other player with more than 10 plate appearances against Chacon, hitting a pedestrian .167/.313/.250.

News out of Cubdom:

-Z has shoulder stiffness. Crap. I think we can all agree that a trip to the DL is the last thing Zambrano -- who, given his tendency to start slow and then blister through the summer, seems poised for a strong run at Brandon Webb for the NL Cy Young this year -- or the team needs. Let's hope it's nothing.

-Dayn Perry has an interesting article on the Cubs' early success at FoxSports.com, providing a statistical analysis of why the team has been winning and how likely they are to keep it up. He suggests that while the defense and offense are likely the real deal, the rotation has been pitching above its head thus far, citing Dempster's unsustainable .211 BABIP, Marquis' typical second-half implosion, and Marmol's overuse up to this point. It's a reasonable argument, especially from someone who isn't necessarily a close follower of the team. Marmol's overuse is definitely a concern, but I think if Marquis continues to struggle like he has, there's no way Lou -- who, if nothing else, hates, HATES losing games -- allows him to stay in the rotation til the all-star break, let alone until he starts his annual second-half collapse. And if Marquis and Dempster need to be replaced, we've got good young pitching in Marshall (and -- crossing fingers here -- Hill) to pick up the slack. He finishes with this:

"Overall, you've got a team that's not capable of maintaining their current 100-win pace. As well, if those pitching concerns come to be realized, then the Cubs will have problems repeating as division champs in the suddenly respectable NL Central."

Even if the pitching staff totally implodes, the all likelihood is that it will do so alongside St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Houston, all of whom have suspect pitching and even more suspect bullpens. Suggesting that The Cubs are in trouble in this division is just plain alarmist.

-Paul Sullivan checks in with an amusing report on former Cubs. My favorite part? Steve Trachsel, on coming out of the bullpen.

"Trachsel told the Baltimore Sun he’s been in the pen about 20 times over the last 5-6 years, but has yet to be used. 'I just never came in,' he said. 'You don’t want me coming in, bases loaded, nobody out.'"

Admitting you have a problem is the first step towards retirement, I suppose.

Game time is once again 7:05 CT. 2 out of 3 ain't bad, kids. Let's go get it.